Authors: Nigel B. Cook
The corrected, empirically-verified equation for cancer risk from radiation dose D at a particular, specific dose rate is: Y = (Normal cancer risk)(exp(-aD)) + bD, where the first term is the DNA repair enzyme P53 (etc) effect of being stimulated by radiation to reduce damage (radiation unbinds P53 from its MDM2 inhibitor) and the second term, bD, is the usual LNT "law" for uncorrected damage accumulation which increases with dose. Though cientifically justified by data, this currently doesn't pass through the so-called "Overton window"; the range of ideas that are considered "acceptable" at a given time. The Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model, adopted in the late 1950s for radiation protection, assumes cancer risk is strictly proportional to total absorbed dose with no threshold and no beneficial effects. We propose a simple, continuous, biologically grounded replacement law that (i) recovers LNT exactly in the high-dose-rate limit, (ii) quantitatively reproduces observed hormesis at environmental and occupational dose-rates, and (iii) is derived from the known saturation kinetics of the p53—MDM2 DNA-repair system.
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[v1] 2025-11-18 00:40:59
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