Economics and Finance

   

Entropy-Driven Prediction in Market-Neutral Trading: A New Statistical Signal

Authors: Bin Li, Jonathan Spring

We propose a novel trading framework based on entropy-gradient prediction applied tomarket-neutral financial time series. Grounded in principles from statistical physics and information theory, our hypothesis asserts that in approximately closed financial systems, entropy tends to increase over time—implying a directional bias in asset price dynamics. We formalize this idea by modeling small perturbations in return distributions and comparing their impact on Shannon entropy. A large-scale empirical evaluation across 29 equity, sectoral, international, and fixed income ETF spreads reveals that the entropy-gradient signal performs consistentlywell in macro-hedged or structurally distinct pairings. Results show Sharpe ratios up to 0.86and meaningful returns in semi-stable systems, even in the absence of transaction cost modelingor risk overlays. These findings highlight entropy as a second-order probabilistic signal and open avenues for entropy-aware modeling across finance, particularly in systematic strategies where conventional price-based signals fail.

Comments: 7 Pages. The methods are applied in actual hedge fund trading programs (Note by viXra Admin: Please submit article written with AI assistance to ai.viXra.org)

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[v1] 2025-07-06 01:44:52

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