Astrophysics

    

If Asteroid 2024YR4 hits the Moon, Will it be Visible from the Earth?

Authors: David W. Chapman

2024YR4 is an asteroid with an estimated diameter of 53 to 67 meters that is classified as an Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object. As of April 2025, it is estimated to have a 4% chance of impacting the Moon on 22 December 2032 at 15:19 UTC (Universal Coordinated Time). While it is likely that the impact point will be visible to an observer on the night side of the Earth, it is not clear whether the event will be visible to the naked eye. This paper describes what is currently known about Asteroid 2024YR4, and estimates the size of the impact fireball. The estimated energy of impact is 6.8 Megatons. The conclusion is that the impact will produce a luminous cloud for a few seconds, and that this should be visible to the naked eye.

Comments: 6 Pages.

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Submission history

[v1] 2025-06-23 20:14:43

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