Economics and Finance

   

Binomial Evolution Function the Only Function You Need to Evaluate a Trading Strategy

Authors: Andrea Berdondini

A trading strategy represents a forecasting model and a forecasting model will generate profits in the future if it has demonstrated in the past that it can predict with a good probability of success the evolutions of the system on which it operates. Since the theory is so simple, why is it so difficult to evaluate a trading strategy? The reason is the following: in finance, we think we see the evolutions of the system but we are only observing the random component due to unpredictable events. Instead, the deterministic component that represents the true evolution of the system is not visible. Unfortunately, not seeing the deterministic component leads to a very important statistical problem: if I execute if 10 winning predictions, I do not know if these operations concern 10 evolutions of the system or concern only one evolution of the system. Therefore, I do not know, if my forecasting algorithm acted intelligently by predicting 10 different evolutions or if it acted irrationally by dividing a bet into 10 smaller ones on the same evolution. Distinguishing between these two scenarios is essential to correctly evaluate the trading strategy and this discrimination can be done by understanding whether the trades are independent of each other. In fact, the condition of independence is the only statistical way to be sure that the trades concern forecasts of different evolutions. The Binomial evolution function solves this problem by transforming the succession of trades into a succession of independent results.

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[v1] 2025-05-22 20:32:44

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