Functions and Analysis

   

Financial Forecasting

Authors: Chance Biehn, Harshu Thummala, Luke Schubert

Although previous studies have established the predictive power of Lotka-Volterra models in financial markets, they assume static demand that does not account for exogenous factors or variable growth rates. The U.S. Domestic Airline industry, however, is an example of a dynamic market that is heavily reliant on customer demand and travel availability, which is why this study introduces non-autonomous models to accurately forecast future growth. Furthermore, only a few firms control most of the market share in this industry, and our study predicts Avelo Airline’s viability in direct competition with these larger, well-established airlines. Our approach not only studies the behavior of small companies in oligopoly markets, but also provides these firms with a framework to react to the growth rate of market- setters and determine the necessary growth to achieve long term viability in the industry. The model examines several methodologies for financial forecasting into one comprehensive model that enhances the predictive capabilities of Lotka-Volterra models, providing valuable insight for participating firms.

Comments: 19 Pages.

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Submission history

[v1] 2024-12-07 20:15:02

Unique-IP document downloads: 330 times

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