This paper redefines the Collatz conjecture and proposes the equivalence Collatz conjecture, which is a necessary and sufficient condition for the Collatz conjecture. The Collatz transform is divided into Collatz even transform and Collatz odd transform. The scale coefficient of Collatz even transform is 0.5, and the scale coefficient of Collatz odd transform is greater than 1.5, but less than 1.501. Furthermore, In the process of Collatz transforms, the probability of Collatz even transforms and that of Collatz odd transforms are equal, and both of them are 0.5. Through the above analysis of the characteristics of Collatz transforms, it can be concluded: Take any positive integer N greater than 1, perform Collatz transforms on N for m times, when m is large enough, the Collatz transform result Nm must be less than its initial value N. That is, the equivalent Collatz conjecture is true, then the Collatz conjecture must also be true. Based on binomial distribution and normal distribution, it is deduced that any positive integer N greater than 1, the number of equivalent Collatz transforms mce = 100 * (1+ log N), then the number of Collatz transforms mc = (100 * (1+ log N)) * (N-1). Further analysis can be concluded that all the Collatz transform results must be unequal, so as to ensure that the transform results will not enter a dead loop during the Collatz transform process.