Artificial Intelligence

   

Analysis of Covid-19 Cases in India Using Seir, Arima and LSTM Models

Authors: Souvik Sengupta

After one year from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, the country is now having a steady decay in the number of daily new cases and active cases. Although the vaccination process is about to start from mid of January 2021, it would not affect the number of daily cases at least for the next three to four months for obvious reasons like phase-wise implementation and six to eight weeks time span required from the first dosage to develop the immunity. Therefore, the prime question is now, where would we reach at the end of the first quarter of 2021, and what could be the number of new cases and active cases before the vaccination immunity starts working. This paper analyzes the growth and decay pattern of Indian COVID-19 cases with help of SEIR epidemical modeling, ARIMA statistical modeling, and time series analysis by LSTM. The models learn the parameter and hyper-parameter values that are best suited for describing the pattern for the COVID-19 pandemic in India. Then it tries to predict the numbers for India by the end of March, 2021. It is forecasted that the number of new cases would come down near 5000 per day, active cases near 40,000 and the total number of infected may reach 11.1 million if the current pattern is followed.

Comments: 6 Pages.

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Submission history

[v1] 2021-06-14 17:07:54
[v2] 2021-06-17 18:25:12

Unique-IP document downloads: 375 times

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