Statistics

    

Revisiting the UK EU Membership Referendum (Brexit) Poll Tracker

Authors: Michaelino Mervisiano

On the 23rd June 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) European Union (EU) membership referendum resulted in 51.9% of voters voted to leave EU—popularly termed as Brexit. Given its significant implications, correctly predicting Brexit was crucial but most pollsters predicted incorrectly. This paper assesses whether Brexit was evident and predictable from the pre-referendum polls data. Unlike previous studies—whose analytical tools are limited to latest poll analysis, descriptive statistics, point estimate, and simple linear regression—this project use more robust and sophisticated statistical methodologies

Comments: 37 Pages. [Corrections made by viXra Admin to conform with the requirements on the Submission Form]

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[v1] 2021-02-05 22:05:06

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