Authors: Russell Leidich
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a class of generative stochastic process models which seek to explain, in the simplest possible terms subject to inherent structural constraints, a set of equally long sequences (time series) of observations. Given such a set, an HMM can be trivially constructed which will reproduce the set exactly. Such an approach, however, would amount to verfitting the data, yielding a model that fails to generalize to new observations of the same physical system under analysis. It’s therefore important to consider the information cost (entropy) of describing the HMM itself – not just the entropy of reproducing the observations, which would be zero in the foregoing extreme case, but in general would be the negative log of the probability of such reproduction occurring by chance. The sum of these entropies would then be suitable for the purpose of ranking a set of candidate HMMs by their respective likelihoods of having actually generated the observations in the first place. To the author’s knowledge, however, no approach has yet been derived for the purpose of measuring HMM entropy from first principles, which is the subject of this paper, notwithstanding the popular use of the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for this purpose.
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