Statistics

    

Modeling and Projecting Offensive Value Using Combined Hit-Tracking and Speed Measurements

Authors: Glenn Healey

Outcome-based statistics for representing batter and pitcher skill have been shown to have a low degree of repeatability due to the effects of multiple confounding variables such as the defense, weather, and ballpark. Statistics derived from pitch and hit-tracking data acquired by the Statcast system have been shown to provide greater repeatability and predictive value than outcome-based statistics. The wOBA cube representation uses three-dimensional hit-tracking data to compute intrinsic batted ball statistics for batters and pitchers. While providing more reliable measures than outcome-based statistics, this representation also revealed that running speed is an important determinant of batter success. We address this issue by building a four-dimensional model for a batted ball's value as a function of its physical contact parameters and the batter's time-to-first speed.

Comments: 20 Pages.

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Submission history

[v1] 2020-03-16 13:55:18

Unique-IP document downloads: 275 times

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