General Mathematics

    

How Extreme Events Can Affect a Seemingly Stabilized Population: a Stochastic Rendition of Ricker’s Model

Authors: S. Bhattacharya, S. Malakar, Florentin Smarandache

Our paper computationally explores Ricker’s predator satiation model with the objective of studying how the extinction dynamics of an animal species having a two-stage lifecycle is affected by a sudden spike in mortality due to an extraneous extreme event. Our simulation model has been designed and implemented using sockeye salmon population data based on a stochastic version of Ricker’s model; with the shock size being reflected by a sudden reduction in the carrying capacity of the environment for this species. Our results show that even for a relatively marginal increase in the negative impact of an extreme event on the carrying capacity of the environment, a species with an otherwise stable population may be driven close to extinction.

Comments: 8 Pages.

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Submission history

[v1] 2016-09-13 04:14:28

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